EstimatingWorkTime

I once heard Jerry say he estimates all his work. At the time it slipped in and out of consciousness as things will do. The discussion about DecisionMakingPrinciples started me thinking about how I make decisions. It seems reasonable to start with a simple decision that I have substantial influence over, how much time a task will take.

The difference between the estimated and actual time will allow me to investigate my decision making process. I will be able to

- what did I assume that was or was not correct?
- was the information complete?
- did the environment change?
- did I do the right things to get the task done?

I'm keeping a sheet of paper on my desk where I can keep track of this information.

Does anyone else do this? DonGray 2006.08.08

I estimate all kinds of things, not just work. How long will it take me to get to work. How long will I be sitting at a traffic light. How much will my grocery bill be. How many kernels of popcorn will fall out of my bag before I get seated at a movie theater. How many pieces of junk mail will I get today. How many people will I run into today. How many words will I use in a SHAPE post.

I only got worried about this when I realized I was estimating how many estimates I would make in a day. I had to ponder for too long a time whether I should include my estimate of estimates as an estimate.

DennisCadena 2006.08.08

Oh yes, I estimate most of my work and try to learn from the comparison of actual and estimated. One reason is that for almost every task I perform at work someone will ask me, "How long do you think that will take you?"

In addtion, I work with contractors who are attempting difficult tasks. Again, people ask me, "How long will it take them to do that?"

I believe that estimating tasks (in time and dollars) is a fundamental skill to working. A skill that is not even mentioned in regular schools.

DwaynePhillips 9 August 2006

The ability (or will) to collect a bit of data and make projections is something I often see lacking. But it is so, so helpful to be able to answer questions like "at our project's current rate of growth, when do we run out of disk space (some machine critical for development)?" (or the manager's version, "When do I need to budget for more disk space?")

I've seen project after project "blindsided" by things they could and should have seen coming if only they'd collected a few data points and drawn a trend line (or curve).

--DaveSmith 2006.08.10

I think we get into trouble when we confuse estimates with bids, or commitments (even to ourselves). Don and others have it right when they use estimates to better understand their process. Just don't make the mistake of ever letting managers see these process-understanding estimates. - JerryWeinberg 2008.08.13

I noticed today I was using "point" estimates, violating "Never give a manager a number." I modified my technique and then promptly used it with a customer and gave them a low/high range instead of the number was I thinking of. DonGray 2006.08.14

Great move. Now watch out that they don't sort of forget one of those numbers (guess which one!) - JerryWeinberg 2008.08.14 (I fixed my calendar)

Updated: Monday, August 14, 2006