SilverBulletsThatMisFired

As Fred Brooks said, "There are no silver bullets".

What silver bullets have you seen that didn't make it? DonGray 2003.09.16

Too many to list all, but generally, in my field of process improvement folks adopt a model like the Software CMM and proceed to implement it one practice at a time, as if the creation of a policy or procedure is going to solve their management problems. Unfortunately, there are too many consultants who are only too willing to lead organizations down that path. Simply putting "dependencies" in a plan template does not mean projects will suddenly plan, track and manage dependencies effectively. Usually, what is missing is the sponsor/management commitment to act, possibly push back on the customer, when issues arise - that requires a change in behavior that most are unwilling to adopt. The same goes for tools. I don't know how many times I've heard: "Let's have everyone use Microsoft Project!" with the assumption that going forward all projects will then forever be perfectly planned and tracked.

Process improvement (whatever tools or models you use) is like a lifestyle change. If you are unfit, overweight, etc., simply buying the video, diet plan or exercise machine will not suddenly turn you into Mr/Miss Universe or a marathon champion. You need a goal, a commitment to reach it, the resources (time, training, tools) to enable you to "do the right thing", then measurements and checks to ensure you both have the right resources and that you are doing the right things to reach your goal (as in the CMM's common features).

A silver bullet is only any good if you have the right gun, you have a clear view of your target, and you are capable of doing what it takes to learn to fire the gun accurately!

RobWyatt 2003.9.16

Great post, Rob. I loved every word. I agree 100%.

SteveSmith 2003.09.16

Agreed, but you left out one thing. For the silver bullet to have maximum payoff, you have to be firing at a vampire or a werewolf. Otherwise, and ordinary lead bullet will do. (Sometimes, you have to use depleted uranium, but that's another story.) - JerryWeinberg 2003.09.16

For those that attended AYE #1, we had a lively panel discussion(debate?) on the usefulness of capability maturity models in general that included SEI folks. If I recall correctly, many of the issues that Rob wrote about above were raised by the panelists and audience. Not sure if I still have the notes from that session. The wiki discussion about the CMM was quite lively as well. Not sure if the links are still here someplace.

JohnSuzuki 2003.09.17

I think I deleted those some time ago, which only goes to show that a gun and a silver bullet don't do much good if you don't even know which end of the gun the bullet comes out of. Sorry, John. I got a little carried away with my housecleaning. - JerryWeinberg 2003.09.18 (P.S. But, it might still be here, if you want to search for it - I'm not that good a housecleaner.)

I know there is version control software underneath this Wiki. So just because it is gone does not mean it is lost. KenEstes 2003.09.19

Ken -- I'll look, but I believe past history may have been lost in a server migration that happened after AYE2002. --DaveSmith

Re silver bullets and other impossible dreams...

I also agree 100% with Rob, and would like to add one thing. Increasingly, I am coming to suspect that the major problem in our business culture is related to overload and the lack of time.

From the 'good samaritan' story where the theology students under time pressures were the ones who didn't stop to help; to experiences with a director who complained about the lack of movement without recognizing that HE was the one to cancel several meetings and hold things up; to a recent experience where the boss wanted to know why they couldn't just 'bring in the needed processes', because they needed to get moving.....

If we had time (I'm referring to myself as well as my own personal time pressures increase) to feel and to think about options and consequences, and make choices and to recognize and prepare for the inevitable changes..... would we NEED silver bullets?

DianeGibson 9-20-03

Diane, I'm more inclined to blame fear. There's never enough time to consider all the alternatives and consequences - at some point, a decision has to be made. And that decision will most likely need to be changed/altered/tossed later.
Some folks are afraid to update the decision - it's theirs, and they'll "go down with the ship" rather than admit what to them is a mistake (it's tough to admit you didn't know it all).
Some folks would rather make a decision too early, then blame time pressures for making the wrong one.
I think it takes a great deal of self-esteem and congruence to state that you are making (or have made) a decision, there's more that could be investigated but a decision is needed now, and that the decision is the best one based on the information currently available but that it might not be the best decision in the long run so we need to revisit it almost constantly.
--DaveLiebreich 2003.09.20

Dave, I agree: Rarely do people who live fast paced lives ever have enough time to consider all the alternatives and consequences.

Hi, Steve. People who live slow-paced lives don't have enough time either. Not for all alternatives and consequences to be considered.

In your environment, I interpret that people, including yourself, perceive that decisions MUST be made quickly. And those same decisions must be constantly revisited. What's the cost of this process? Are the decisions really revisited? If not, what's the cost of the fantasy?

I project my preferences onto my environment - get moving early, get lots of data along the way, steer guided mostly by strategic issues. I really do work this way (when I can), and there is a loss-of-efficiency cost for shoehorning me into a different working model. Which is not to say that different would not be cheaper, for certain situations. Did I mention I'm very context-focused :-)

It seems natural to me that SOME decisions, even in a fast paced environment, warrant a careful and deliberate decision making process. Which type of decisions at your company warrant careful treatment? What are examples of decisions that deserve careful treatment that are under your direct control? How do you choose to make those decisions?

Yes, context is everything. But that wanders away from the point I was trying to make. I posit that fear is a major contributing factor towards the need for silver bullets. For example, fear of looking incompetent or unintelligent may motivate a person to manufacture time pressure. After all, if you are not allowed to use your full abilities to make a decision (because of the time pressure), then those abilities can't be judged . . . --DaveLiebreich 2003.09.28

SteveSmith 2003.09.20

For a silver bullet to kill the feared creature, it must have a high velocity. People seem to forget that velocity is a vector - speed plus direction. Firing silver bullets in random directions isn't likely to be effective, regardless of how fast they're going. - JerryWeinberg 2003.09.28

Also, firing every silver bullet you have isn't likely to be necessary. Pick the right one and hit the Werewolf. Keep the rest of the silver bullets for later. The big bad wolf probably had some friends.

-- JimBullock, 2003.09.28

I read many trenchant observations here about silver bullets. But I've yet to see the one I've always considered most important, call it the Pogo thesis. It doesn't help to have a silver bullet, if after all our studies, we find we are the werewolf.

MikeMelendez 2003.09.29

Only on certain nights, Mike. - JerryWeinberg 2003.09.28

That, of course, is true of all lycanthropes. What if the cause of a particular problem is vampirism? Perhaps the major problem with Silver Bullets, is the idea that one solution fits a given problem at all companies: maybe you need a wooden stake rather than a well-aimed silver bullet. If I've learned one thing from AYE, it's that I need to keep expanding my toolkit.

To reference the lead entry, I think if we think of CMM, for example, as a Silver Bullet, i.e. the solution to our problems, we can easily get lost. If instead, we think of CMM as a toolkit or a guide as we search for problems we need to solve, we have a chance.

MikeMelendez 2003.09.29

But that wanders away from the point I was trying to make. I posit that fear is a major contributing factor towards the need for silver bullets. For example, fear of looking incompetent or unintelligent may motivate a person to manufacture time pressure. After all, if you are not allowed to use your full abilities to make a decision (because of the time pressure), then those abilities can't be judged. . . --DaveLiebreich 2003.09.28

What do you fear, Dave?

SteveSmith 2003.09.29

Briefly, one thing that I fear is getting the facts wrong, and being seen as getting the facts wrong. Makes it easy for me to give credit to others for their ideas. So fear is not bad - it just is. --DaveLiebreich 2003.09.30

There's a silver bullet for the fear of getting facts wrong. Just precede your comments with "These are the facts as I understand them today. I sometimes get facts wrong, so be careful." - JerryWeinberg 2003.09.29

I've been reading about PairProgramming and wondering if it might be a legitimate silver bullet. Has anyone had bad experiences with it, or witnessed bad effects? Any cautions to offer? Pairing looks like it should offer improved quality, shortened schedules, possibly lower costs, better teamwork, better communication .... I don't want to be stupidly starry-eyed, but it sounds really good. Is there an ugly truth lurking out there? - KathyRhode 2003.10.06

I wonder if two potential problems with silver bullets are the beliefs that:

There's only one problem - when we solve it, everything will be fixed.

All I have to do is aim and shoot, and the problem will be fixed.
With respect to PairProgramming,

two heads per line of code does not fix everything in the entire project. It helps, but it is not sufficient.

PairProgramming is a skill that needs to be taught and practiced. Some programmers may take to it well; others, not so well.
--DaveLiebreich 2003.10.07

There was a letter to the editor in the Sept./Oct. 2003 IEEE Software magazine where a chief architect from Lockheed Martin talked about his organization's evaluation of XP practices. He was commenting on an earlier column (the IEEE Software magazine May/June issue was dedicated to Extreme Programming) from Robert Glass titled "Questioning the Software Engineering Unquestionables." Glass suggested that folks exercise caution when jumping on the XP bandwagon and that we need to stop and examine some of those old wives' tales we have learned about in software engineering. The architect's organization considered XP practices but did not move to XP. The chief architect stated in his letter to the editor that "It didn't hurt that management didn't want two people working each line of code." (Isn't it amazing how little management understands development practices).

Glass cites Pete McBreen's book, "Questioning Extreme Programming," (Addison Wesley, 2003) as a source that one should read. He suggests that you carefully consider the points in the book in the context of your own organization, your project(s) and your development folks. McBreen offers some areas that he feels is unsuitable for XP (i.e., life or safety critical software).

JohnSuzuki 2003.10.06

I'm currently dealing with a silver bullet situation - I'm working with a small team on a somewhat large automated testing effort. I've had experience with the realities of automated testing before at a variety of companies, but automated testing is new to my current employer. They are hoping for the silver bullet. Although the technical work for the project is difficult, my main challenge is managing expectations. - RickHower 2003.10.07

Although the technical work for the project is difficult, my main challenge is managing expectations.

You're in luck! Naomi Karten, author of "Managing Expectations, Working with People Who Want More, Better, Faster, Sooner, NOW!" will be presenting at this year's conference. You can probably get her to autograph your copy of the book (if you don't already own one) at the Dorset House display. (and yes, I know that Naomi has presented at all of the AYE Conferences. Her "piece d' resistance" is our closing session on Wednesday afternoon). DonGray 2003.10.08

In my experience, there are LOTS of silver bullets.

I love to play "follow the metaphor".

I am not a gun nut, and know little of ballistics. However, my understanding is that silver bullets would not accomplish the intended task very well. Lead bullets are effective because they flatten somewhat on impact, even with (ugh) flesh, and thereby cause terrible damage. If I've got my metallurgy right, silver bullets would harder than lead, and less inclined to flatten, and would therefore pass through the intended victim. Also, silver is more valuable by weight than lead. Many bullets--doubtless the majority--miss their targets. One bullet stands a good chance of missing. Interestingly, you never hear about silver buckshot.

Thus silver bullets are likely to be less effective at the intended task, more expensive, and wasteful. Lead ones--time tested, inexpensive, simple in concept--might be better. Just because it doesn't glitter doesn't mean it's not gold. (Yikes--three negatives!)

- MichaelBolton 2003.10.14

Ah, Michael, what you don't seem to understand is that to the military mind, you don't want to kill soldiers with bullets, you only want to wound them, because each wounded soldier requires two other soldiers to care for him/her. If you want to kill, then you hollow the head of the bullet so it really messes up the person even with a non-vital hit. This you could do with silver or lead or depleted uranium.

Silver buckshot, though, is a good idea, and one that's used on a lot of software projects. - JerryWeinberg

Updated: Tuesday, October 14, 2003